2019 Predictions From a Cloudy Crystal Ball
I tried Mirror, Mirror on the wall….got nothing. I asked Alexa and the only thing she had to say was that Jeff Bezos will make a few Billion more dollars in 2019. I thought I would fall back on the Crystal Ball…. only to find out it was cloudy.
Heading into my 29th year as an Agent/Broker of Vintage Homes in Las Vegas I decided I would do my research and rely on my experience to see what 2019 is going to bring us.
I have a list of clients that have already called and want to list their homes in the first quarter of the year. I also have active buyers being very specific about what they are looking to buy as soon as we find it so it looks like we are going to have a good start to the year.
Values Vs. Prices
Values are not coming down but sellers are having to be more realistic on their pricing. Last summer you could price your house at most anything and get multiple offers because of the short supply of houses on the market. Those days are over. The inventory went from less than one month supply to about three months supply. Everyone was jumping in but pricing to high so while the buyers are out there they are being picky and rightfully so. So many sellers asking prices that are not warranted in this market. I walked away from some listings because the sellers just wanted too much for their homes. I believe the inventory will keep increasing through the spring and summer as it normally does but those that really want to sell are going to need to listen to experienced agents about the true value of their houses if they want to sell them. It looks like the market for the first time in 15+ years is going to get back to being “Normal”. A six month supply of homes.
Appreciation
This last year we saw increases in value of 15% to 18% depending on the location in the valley. Vintage homes were at the high end of the increases because they were priced lower to start out with. While the “Experts” are calling for a year over year increase of 8.9% for the Las Vegas valley I believe we will see the Vintage areas at the top of that increase still. I personally think the Value increases overall will be closer to 5%-6% for 2019. More people are starting to look for the Mid-Century Modern homes and at the larger lots that come with them. Demand drives the prices.
Interest Rates
Interest rates increased four times in 2018. When the Fed’s made their increase in December they cut their prediction of four increases for 2019 to two. With that in mind, buyers are going to be out earlier in the year rather than waiting until summer and fall to try to beat the interest increases this year.
Growth in Las Vegas
There are a lot of big building projects currently going on in Las Vegas. Many of them are not Gaming related, the valley is finally diversifying. Other industries are seeing this is a cost efficient place to do business. New building brings jobs and the new people moving to the valley need homes to live in. Rent increases have outpaced much of the country so more people are finally understanding that it is cheaper to own than rent in Las Vegas. Most of the bigger projects are projected to see completion in 2020 and 2021. There are other projects being discussed that could extend the building boom but those come and go. Don’t count on anything until it comes out of the dirt.
The population is on the rise, and is out pacing just about every state. Since the bottom of the recession, Clark county as averaged over 2% annual population growth.
July 1, 2010 – July 1 2018 12.36% — population increase according to census bureau figures.
The Bubble!
There is not a day that goes by that I don’t see someone yelling “BUBBLE, BUBBLE” yet they don’t provide any information that would show a bubble is coming. Even during recessions housing prices have increased an average of 3% in history. Housing prices do not cause bubbles. I wrote about this subject in depth in September so I won’t labor on it here. Check out what my experience and research shows by CLICKING HERE.
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Disclaimer: This article includes predictions for the U.S. real estate market into 2020. Economic and housing forecasts are the equivalent of an educated guess and should be treated as such. No one can predict future real estate trends with complete accuracy.
